Egegik and Kvichak stocks rise at Bristol Bay's Port Moller intercept

The fish moving through Bristol Bay's early-intercept station at Port Moller have shifted toward Egegik and Kvichak stocks in the latest reports, a change that commercial fishers and managers are tracking as the season enters July. ADF&G's 2026 Bristol Bay sockeye forecast projected a 45.32 million-fish total run and expected all systems to meet spawning escapement goals, with a harvestable surplus of 33.53 million fish. The Port Moller genetic data, which ADF&G states "is used by fishery managers to make inseason decisions about commercial fishing openings," reflects which stocks are currently moving through the intercept station.

Nine consecutive bi-daily genetic reports cover June 16 through July 3. Wood River led at 40.7% and Nushagak at 31.5% in mid-June; by July 2-3, Egegik had surged to 31.3% and Kvichak to 22.3%, while Nushagak dropped to 8.4%. Kvichak held between 19.4% and 29.1% across four straight periods since June 26, reflecting a sustained strong presence at the intercept station. Naknek, a separate reporting group, remained much lower across most of those same periods, ranging from 1.7% to 4.3% before rising to 13.7% in the July 2-3 report. The July 2-3 sample covered 214 fish, of which 190 were analyzed and 188 had adequate data to include in the results; each reporting group carries a 90% confidence interval, and the Kvichak estimate of 22.3% spans a range of 15.7% to 29.8%. The rapid shift is also visible in Ugashik, which ranked second at 22.1% in the June 30 to July 1 period and 20.0% in June 28-29, then fell to just 1.3% by July 2-3. Questions about the methodology can be directed to fisheries geneticist Tyler Dann at ADF&G's Anchorage office.

The commercial signal from Port Moller points toward Egegik and Kvichak, but the data carries a counterpoint that managers weigh alongside it. Some Nushagak-area tribal governments and subsistence users argue that openings based on Port Moller interception data can allow too many fish to be harvested before local escapement needs are fully understood. Salmon are identified as the most important subsistence resource in the Bristol Bay region, and residents report that commercial openings and closures directly affect their ability to harvest fish for subsistence. The Port Moller test fishery is a collaboration among ADF&G, the Alaska Salmon Program, and the University of Washington's Fisheries Research Institute; its data is one input among several that managers use to balance commercial harvest against escapement obligations across all districts.