Alaska's population holds steady to 2055. Kodiak loses a quarter of its people.

Alaska's population is projected to be almost exactly the same size in 2055 as it is today — about 2 percent smaller. That flat line conceals what happens underneath it. Kodiak is projected to lose a quarter of its people.

New projections from the state Department of Labor run to 2055. Under the middle of three scenarios, Alaska climbs slightly from 738,737 today to 746,032 in 2035, then declines to 724,936 — a net loss of under 14,000 people over three decades.

Kodiak's numbers move differently. The island is projected to fall from 12,430 residents now to 9,634 in 2050 and 9,191 by 2055. That's a loss of more than 3,200 people, or 26 percent.

Those figures have been getting worse. At a Kodiak Island Borough Assembly meeting in May, Dan Rohr said the state's then-current 2050 projection for the island — 9,871 residents — "scares" him as a business and building owner. The new edition puts that same year at 9,634.

The Alaska Native population moves in the other direction entirely. It's projected to grow from 165,951 to 172,182 while the state overall shrinks, raising the Alaska Native share of the state's population from about 22.5 percent to nearly 24 percent.

None of this is a forecast so much as an extension of what's already happening. The projections are built from current counts and historical birth, death and migration trends. The department first reported long-term statewide decline in late 2024, writing then that "for the first time, our population projections show a decline in Alaska's population over the long term."