Alaska Native groups object to plan to drop race questions from 2030 census

Public comment closed Monday on a Census Bureau proposal to drop race and ethnicity questions from the 2030 census, as Alaska Native organizations objected that it could distort counts of their communities.

The bureau's own preliminary analysis warns that the survey the bureau points to as a fallback "may not be a suitable substitute for all federally recognized tribes or state-recognized tribes, some of which have small population sizes for which the ACS does not provide accurate estimates."

The ACS is the American Community Survey. The analysis, marked draft and pre-decisional, speaks about small tribes generally and does not name Alaska.

The proposed rule, published Sept. 10, would bar questions about race, ethnicity or sexual orientation from the forms used to count the population. Surveys like the ACS and other agencies' records would not be restricted, the bureau says.

The rule would also count people where they lawfully spent the most days between Jan. 3 and April 1, using tax records as evidence.

The bureau argues that counting people to divide U.S. House seats among the states should be colorblind. It says a lighter form would raise response rates and lower the risk of identifying individuals in published data.

The proposed text doesn't add a question about tribal membership. But the bureau's presentation to tribes says the ban wouldn't prohibit one, and answering it would be optional.

The bureau's analysis says the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development uses counts of American Indian and Alaska Native tribes and villages for the Indian Housing Block Grant.

Under a HUD rule, that grant's tribal population figure comes from the most recent census, adjusted for confirmed undercounts and updated each year. It carries an 11% weight in the part of the formula that measures need. How any Alaska tribe's grant would change isn't known.

Kawerak, which represents 20 tribes in the Bering Strait region, says its tribes get most of their low-income housing aid through that grant.

The bureau's analysis also says census counts by race and ethnicity anchor its yearly population estimates, and that no other source is as accurate. Without them, those estimates would start from older or less accurate data, and survey estimates could get worse after 2030, it says.

Alaska tribes object to how they were consulted, too. The bureau's letter to tribal leaders, signed Sept. 17, gave two weeks' notice of a single Oct. 2 consultation session instead of its usual 30 days. It cited 2030 Census deadlines and lawsuits over the 2020 count.

That session drew more than 800 calls, and "very few Tribes could get access to express their concerns," Kawerak President Melanie Bahnke wrote. An Oct. 5 notice moved the comment deadline from Oct. 13 to Nov. 2. In an Oct. 13 letter, the bureau said it had made giving tribal leaders ample time to comment a priority.

Kawerak's letter says its rural tribes keep enrollment records, not local censuses, so the census is currently the only way to accurately certify their populations for grants such as tribal victim services funds. It says the new residence rule could distort counts of Alaska Native people who spend time away from home for work, school, health care, caregiving or military service.

Kawerak asked the Commerce Department to withdraw the proposal unless and until meaningful tribal consultation and a full impact assessment take place.

"Any revisions affecting American Indians and Alaska Natives must not be rushed and should therefore be deferred until the 2040 Census at the earliest," Native Village of Kotzebue Executive Director Carl Jennings wrote.

The Alaska Federation of Natives adopted a resolution opposing the changes at its October convention and asked the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, chaired by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, to hold hearings. AFN's notice says the rule would erase "all data" on Alaska Native people, though the proposal does not restrict survey questions or agency records.

The online docket showed 135,107 comments posted as of Wednesday, including form letters. The bureau will decide whether to finalize the rule. Its slides say proposed census topics go to Congress by April 1, 2027, and proposed questions by April 1, 2028.