Alaska LNG's $16 gas promise to utilities may not hold, critics warn

The proposed $16-per-MMBtu gas price from Glenfarne Alaska LNG may not hold by the time the project delivers its first molecules, the Alaska Public Interest Research Group warned the Senate Finance Committee in formal testimony dated June 16, 2026.

AKPIRG argues the figure converts to $16.59 per thousand cubic feet, the unit utilities use in billing, and that an inflation escalator running before first delivery could push the price to roughly $18/mcf by 2029 and approximately $20/mcf by 2033. Department of Revenue modeling supports related concerns. Chief Economist Dan Stickel told the committee that the department has done analysis that "looks at gas break-even prices" across a range of Phase 1-only scenarios. Department of Revenue slides presented to the House Finance Committee on June 10, 2026 showed that only one scenario, assuming in-state demand of roughly 260 percent of current levels, placed the utility price below $20/mcf in 2033.

AKPIRG's concerns extend beyond price escalation. The group flagged the complexity of the Glenfarne-ENSTAR arrangement, which it describes as three interlocking agreements spanning 30 years, a structure the group says the RCA has not previously encountered. AKPIRG also noted that the RCA will lack a comparative market benchmark for evaluating whether Glenfarne's prices are just and reasonable, because no competing pipeline exists. The group further warned that it is unclear whether the stated $16/MMBtu price includes the cost of the Fairbanks spur line, which both HB 381 and SB 2001 require to be spread systemwide and which could be added through a surcharge on top of the stated gas price.

HB 381, as passed by the Alaska State House, sets a $16/MMBtu price cap for gas sold to Alaska utilities, adjusted annually for inflation, according to the Regulatory Commission of Alaska's June 16 presentation to Senate Finance and the Department of Revenue's analysis of the bill.

The Regulatory Commission of Alaska, which must approve any gas supply contract, is currently missing all three Master Analyst positions and its Deputy Director post, according to AKPIRG's testimony. The Senate Finance Committee is weighing HB 381 and SB 2001 during a special session.