Outside spending in the Alaska Senate race intensifies — Majority Forward ads target Sullivan

The 2026 Alaska Senate race between incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola moved further into active campaign mode this week as Majority Forward, a Democratic-aligned 501(c)(4) organization, began airing ads in Alaska on June 16 attacking Sullivan's foreign-policy and health-care voting record.

The Majority Forward ad claims Sullivan "gives a blank check for the war in Iran" and voted to raise health insurance costs. The specific votes the ad references are not identified in the ad text, and Alaska News could not independently verify which votes the ad is criticizing. The "war in Iran" reference is likely tied to Sullivan's June 16 vote against a motion to discharge an Iran War Powers Resolution that would have directed removal of U.S. Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities against Iran; Murkowski voted in favor of discharge while Sullivan voted against, continuing a documented pattern from a similar 2020 vote on S.J.Res. 68. The health insurance reference is not clearly tied to a specific vote in the ad's text and was not elaborated by Majority Forward in publicly available materials at the time of publication.

The outside-spending dynamic in the race is currently lopsided. AdImpact has reported future ad reservations at $16.0 million for Republican-aligned groups and $7.5 million for Democratic-aligned groups. The 501(c)(4) framework that allows Majority Forward to operate without disclosing donors is the same framework Republican-aligned outside-spending organizations use; neither side discloses donors under the IRS classification, and both sides operate under standard FEC reporting for independent expenditures.

Sullivan's campaign had not publicly responded to the Majority Forward ads as of publication.

A June 4 to 7 Alaska Survey Research poll of 1,393 likely voters showed Peltola leading Sullivan 49.4 percent to 44.2 percent, with Gerald Heikes at 3.7 percent and Dustin Darden at 2.7 percent. The poll carried an A/B rating from the firm — a rating that reflects the polling firm's own confidence in the methodology, not an independent third-party evaluation. Independent national polling aggregators have not yet established cycle-defining averages for the race.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics Crystal Ball reclassified the race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" earlier this month — the second ratings shift since Peltola entered the contest.