NWS forecasts water 4 to 6 feet above high tide at Koyuk and Elim Monday

Water is expected to rise 4 to 6 feet above the normal high tide line near Koyuk and Elim from 4 a.m. Monday to 4 p.m. Tuesday, the steepest rise forecast in the coastal advisories issued for this storm.

The National Weather Service office in Fairbanks issued the high surf advisory late Friday night for Eastern Norton Sound and the Nulato Hills. Forecasters said localized beach erosion may occur, along with high surf and minor wave run-up during the Monday and Tuesday high tides. "Precautions should be taken to protect property," the advisory said.

Stebbins, Saint Michael and Unalakleet fall on the lower end of that 4 to 6 foot range.

A second advisory covers the Yukon Delta Coast, where water levels are forecast 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line from 4 p.m. Sunday to 4 a.m. Tuesday. "Highest water levels will be towards Emmonak and Kotlik," that advisory said. The impacts listed are the same: beach erosion, minor wave run-up, high surf.

Other coastal areas face lower forecast ranges. The Seward Peninsula is forecast to see water 1 to 3 feet above normal high tide during the Monday and Tuesday high tides, as is the Arctic coast from Wainwright to Utqiagvik. From Kotzebue to Kivalina, and separately from Point Lay to Point Hope, forecasters expect 2 to 4 feet above normal high tide.

Those special weather statements, issued Saturday morning, cite a Bering Sea low moving into the Gulf of Anadyr and then the Chukchi Sea on Monday.

Previous storm surges show what such water levels can mean for Norton Sound communities. The National Park Service, in its account of the September 2022 Typhoon Merbok surge, documented western Alaska villages including Koyuk forced to evacuate and shorelines cut back. It framed surge in those communities as an evacuation-level hazard rather than a nuisance tide.

Nothing in the current advisories forecasts damage on that scale.

Forecasters flagged uncertainty. "There is still some uncertainty and the water level forecast may change slightly this weekend," the advisory said. The Arctic coast statement noted a wind shift to the west-northwest Tuesday afternoon that could hold water levels up into Wednesday.