Naknek River sockeye may fall short of forecast as managers ration openings

The Naknek River sockeye run may not reach its preseason forecast of 3.89 million fish, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game warned in early July, a concern that has shaped how managers have scheduled commercial fishing windows in the Naknek-Kvichak District since the season opened.

That concern is notable because ADF&G's preseason forecast projected a 45.32 million sockeye run across Bristol Bay and expected all systems, including the Naknek, to meet escapement goals. Naknek-Kvichak Area Biologist Travis Elison said the Naknek had been "low in the Port Moller Test Fishery stock composition estimates" and that escapement was "projected to be below the escapement goal if the run comes in 2 days earlier than average." A July 4 announcement added that Naknek escapement was tracking the lower bound of the escapement goal curve based on average run timing.

For the roughly 300 commercial vessels registered in the district as of July 8, with 396 expected within 48 hours, cautious management on the Naknek can constrain harvest windows even during a strong regional season. The Kvichak, by contrast, tracked above its lower escapement bound throughout, giving managers room to open that section more freely.

Escapement on the Naknek climbed from 273,000 fish on July 2 to 688,000 by July 8, reflecting a series of limited openings in between. Commercial harvest on July 7 alone reached 579,000 fish, bringing the season total to 2.5 million. ADF&G opened the district to drift gillnet gear for 7.5 hours Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A separate seven-hour drift gillnet opening was also authorized for Thursday morning, though the July 8 source record contains both an original and a revised announcement that differ on whether that opening applied to the Naknek Section or the Kvichak Section. The notices reviewed for this article do not include a subsequent announcement explicitly clearing the earlier concern about the Naknek run.