Corps: large Donlin dam failure would likely make Crooked Creek uninhabitable

A large failure of the planned Donlin Gold tailings dam would likely leave the Village of Crooked Creek uninhabitable, according to a draft federal review the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers released Sept. 23.

The public has until Oct. 23 to comment. Hearings are in Bethel Oct. 14 from 2 to 6 p.m., Crooked Creek Oct. 15 from 1:30 to 3:30 p.m., Aniak Oct. 16 from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. and online Oct. 19 from 6 to 8 p.m. Afterward, the Corps and Bureau of Land Management will decide whether to modify, reaffirm or rescind the mine's permit and right-of-way, by May 28, 2027.

A federal judge ordered the new analysis after the Corps' 2018 environmental review modeled a spill of only 0.5 percent of the tailings facility. The Orutsararmiut Native Council and other tribes sued, and in September 2024 U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason found the agencies erred "by failing to consider a tailings spill larger than 0.5%" of the facility's volume.

In June 2025 she sent the decision back without vacating, or canceling, the permits, calling the flaw "one aspect of a complex mining project." Her order does not bar construction; it requires 90 days' notice to the parties and the court before construction under the permit or right-of-way begins during the review.

The draft now models three larger spills, releasing 5.4, 13.3 and 27 percent of the tailings facility. The largest releases 109,730 acre-feet (an acre-foot is an acre a foot deep) of tailings and pond water from behind a planned 471-foot dam about 10 miles above Crooked Creek. The flood reaches Crooked Creek in about an hour and a half, Chuathbaluk in about nine and a half hours, Aniak in under 15 hours and Kalskag in about 22; in a flood-season run it reaches Chuathbaluk and Aniak sooner. The Kuskokwim River rises 11.1 feet just below the Crooked Creek confluence in that scenario, and about 2 feet at Chuathbaluk and Aniak.

Under the 13.3 percent scenario, tailings could lie 3 to 30 feet deep in places, "and it is likely that the Village of Crooked Creek would no longer be habitable," the draft states. Under the 27 percent scenario, the airstrip floods fully and tailings reach 10 to 30 feet deep; the draft again finds it "likely that the community of Crooked Creek would no longer be habitable," adding that "the potential for loss of life would be increased." Even the smallest new scenario would require evacuating parts of the village.

The executive summary frames the risk more narrowly: "the 27 percent scenario could render parts of the Village of Crooked Creek uninhabitable and create significant public-safety challenges." The draft does not explain the discrepancy with the body's broader findings.

On fish and subsistence, the draft states that "larger spills could cause population-level impacts lasting years to decades in Crooked Creek, with the 27 percent scenario potentially causing generational effects." Thousands of acres of wetlands would be buried or eroded, with recovery taking decades to more than a century. Farther downstream, the Kuskokwim's volume is expected to dilute contaminants.

The BLM's subsistence evaluation "indicates the proposed action may significantly restrict subsistence in some portions of the proposed project area," prompting formal subsistence hearings alongside the Corps meetings.

The Corps says a failure of any size "remains extremely unlikely," citing the dam's bedrock foundation, rockfill and downstream construction, traits it associates with the lowest failure rates worldwide, noting no known dam sharing all of them has failed. The state Dam Safety Program would oversee the dam and requires a public emergency action plan.

Donlin Gold is owned by NovaGold and investment funds managed by Paulson Advisers. The mine site sits on land selected by Calista Corporation and The Kuskokwim Corporation.

This account draws from the Corps draft, the Corps public notice, the BLM finding and the court's order. Those records do not include statements from Crooked Creek residents, the tribes that sued, the cooperating tribal councils of Crooked Creek, Chuathbaluk, Napaimute, Akiak and Knik, or from Donlin Gold, NovaGold or Calista.

Comments and hearing details are posted at donlingoldseis.com.