Cook moves Alaska's U.S. House race to Lean Republican as a new poll shows a closer race

The Cook Political Report on Friday moved Alaska's U.S. House race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." The national forecaster still gives the edge to Republican Rep. Nick Begich over independent Bill Hill, but now rates the race one step short of a toss-up.

The election is Nov. 3.

Three days before Cook's change, Data for Progress, a progressive polling firm, released a survey that had Begich barely ahead once ranked-choice votes were counted, 51% to 49%. In August, the same firm had Begich up by 10 points. Hill "has all but erased the double-digit lead," the firm wrote.

The poll also found that the race could turn on voters for Democrat Eric Hafner, who is serving a federal prison sentence. If Hafner's voters had ranked Hill next, the race would have been tied. Groups backing Hill have spent nearly $400,000 urging Alaskans not to rank Hafner at all.

An earlier poll, taken in early September for the Independent Leadership Council, had Begich ahead about 50% to 47% after ranked-choice counting.

Begich won the seat in 2024, unseating Democrat Mary Peltola. Hill, a commercial fisherman and former Bristol Bay school superintendent, is running for office for the first time. President Donald Trump endorsed Begich in an Oct. 3 video: "He has my complete and total endorsement." The Alaska Democratic Party has endorsed Hill.

Begich has far more money to spend. He had about $1.8 million in the bank in mid-October, to Hill's roughly $118,000, according to Federal Election Commission reports. But Hill has been raising money faster lately: about $1.2 million from July through September, a little more than Begich, and more than twice as much as Begich in the first two weeks of October.

Outside groups are spending millions too. The biggest so far are Club for Growth Action, at about $1.9 million for Begich or against Hill, and Wheel Dog PAC, at about $2 million for Hill.

Prediction markets still gave Begich a 78% chance of winning as of Oct. 24, according to Voting Monitor, a project of Alaska News and Communities News, the newsroom publishing this article.