Begich holds front-runner's edge as Hill emerges from the field to challenge him

Republican Rep. Nick Begich III enters Alaska's U.S. House primary as the clear front-runner, with independent Bill Hill positioning himself as the leading alternative after the field around him thinned. Voters cast primary ballots Aug. 18, and the top four advance to the Nov. 3 general.

Begich holds a wide advantage on money and in the limited independent polling. He won the seat in 2024 with 51.22 percent, unseating Democrat Mary Peltola, who is not running this year. Campaign finance reports show the incumbent raised $5.26 million through June 30, more than four times Hill's $1.17 million, and a Bullfinch Group poll conducted July 13-16 put Begich at 46 percent — the strongest position in the race, though short of the majority ranked-choice voting requires to win in November.

Hill comes to the race from outside politics entirely. A lifelong Alaskan and Dena'ina Athabascan from the Iliamna Lake village of Kokhanok, he spent 25 years in rural education, retiring as superintendent of the Bristol Bay Borough School District, and has fished commercially in Bristol Bay. This is his first run for any office. He is, by his own framing, a political newcomer — which is both his pitch and his challenge, since most of the statewide electorate is still meeting him.

His standing as leading challenger owes largely to a withdrawal. That same Bullfinch poll, taken before Democrat Matt Schultz dropped out, had Hill third at 20 percent, behind Schultz's 32. When Schultz suspended his campaign in mid-July and endorsed Hill, it cleared much of the non-Begich lane and made Hill the likeliest alternative to advance from a crowded field. His campaign has pointed to its own commissioned poll from February showing a closer race, though independent surveys since have shown Begich well ahead.

Running as an independent, Hill has declined to say whether he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans, saying his loyalty is to Alaskans. His fundraising complicates the independent label: of the roughly $1 million his campaign has reported from individual donors, about 78% came from outside Alaska — with California and New York donors each rivaling the total from Alaskans — and every dollar of its PAC money was routed through ActBlue, the Democratic Party's small-donor fundraising platform, according to the campaign's FEC filings.

Because the November election is decided by ranked choice and requires a majority, the race won't turn on the top two alone. Which four candidates emerge Tuesday, and who can draw support beyond a single base, will shape the outcome as much as the primary vote itself.