Census Bureau analysis says fallback survey may not work for small tribes

The Census Bureau's own preliminary analysis warns that the survey it points to as a fallback may not work for some tribes, as public comment closed Monday on its proposal to drop race and ethnicity questions from the 2030 census.

The proposed rule, published Sept. 10, would bar questions about race, ethnicity or sexual orientation from the questionnaires used to count the population. The bureau says the American Community Survey (ACS) and other agencies' records would not be restricted. The rule would also count people where they lawfully spent the most days from Jan. 3 to April 1, using tax records as evidence.

But the bureau's preliminary analysis of the rule's effects, marked draft and pre-decisional, says "the ACS may not be a suitable substitute for all federally recognized tribes or state-recognized tribes, some of which have small population sizes for which the ACS does not provide accurate estimates." The analysis speaks generally about small tribes and does not name Alaska.

The analysis also says decennial counts by race and ethnicity anchor annual population estimates and that no other source is as accurate. Dropping the questions would force those estimates to start from outdated or less accurate data, it says, and ACS and other federal survey estimates may deteriorate after the 2030 census data are released.

The analysis says agencies such as the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development use counts of American Indian and Alaska Native tribes and villages for the Indian Housing Block Grant. A HUD rule takes that grant's tribal population figure from the most recent census, adjusted for confirmed undercounts and updated each year. That figure carries an 11% weight in the formula's need component. How any Alaska tribe's grant would change is not established.

Kawerak, which represents 20 tribes in the Bering Strait region, says its tribes get most of their low-income housing aid through this grant.

Alaska tribes object to how they were consulted as well as to the proposal. The bureau's letter to tribal leaders, signed Sept. 17, gave two weeks' notice of a single Oct. 2 session rather than its standard 30 days, citing 2030 Census deadlines and lawsuits over the 2020 count. In an Oct. 13 letter, the bureau said it had prioritized giving tribal leaders ample time to comment after the consultation. An Oct. 5 notice had moved the comment deadline from Oct. 13 to Nov. 2.

Kawerak President Melanie Bahnke wrote in Kawerak's letter that the Oct. 2 session drew more than 800 calls and "very few Tribes could get access to express their concerns." Because its rural tribes keep enrollment records rather than local censuses, it says, the census is currently the only way to accurately certify local populations for grants such as tribal victim services funds. The letter says the new residence rule could distort counts of Alaska Native people who spend time away from home for work, school, health care, caregiving or military service. It asks the Commerce Department to withdraw the proposal unless and until meaningful tribal consultation and a full impact assessment take place.

"Any revisions affecting American Indians and Alaska Natives must not be rushed and should therefore be deferred until the 2040 Census at the earliest," Native Village of Kotzebue Executive Director Carl Jennings wrote in the tribe's comments.

The bureau argues that counting people to divide U.S. House seats among the states should be colorblind. It says dropping the questions would ease the form's burden, which it expects to raise response rates, and would lower the risk of identifying individuals in published data. The proposed text does not add a tribal question, but the bureau's presentation to tribes says the ban would not prohibit one, and answering it would be optional.

The Alaska Federation of Natives adopted a resolution opposing the changes at its October convention. AFN's notice says the rule would erase "all data" on these populations, though the proposal does not restrict survey questions or agency records. The resolution asks the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, chaired by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, to hold hearings.

The online docket showed 135,107 posted comments on Wednesday, including form letters, with no tally of positions. The bureau will next decide whether to finalize the rule. The bureau's slides say proposed census topics go to Congress by April 1, 2027, and proposed questions by April 1, 2028.