Bristol Bay sockeye forecast jumps 16% as Naknek-Kvichak fleet swells toward 400 vessels

The University of Washington Fisheries Research Institute raised its 2026 Bristol Bay sockeye in-season forecast 16 percent on July 7, moving the number from 41.5 million to 48.2 million fish, a revision that coincided with July 9 eastside fishing openings for permit holders across the bay's eastside districts. Tradex Foods noted the increase improves the frozen wild sockeye supply outlook as peak production arrives, though the run remains below the past four seasons and pink salmon is forecast 64 million fish below 2025, so the overall species mix is not uniformly favorable.

ADF&G emergency orders filed Wednesday show the Naknek-Kvichak District logged 579,000 fish harvested on July 7 alone, bringing the season total there to 2.5 million, up from 1.9 million and 256 registered vessels just two days earlier. Travis Elison reported Wednesday: "Harvest on July 7 was 579,000 fish for a total of 2.5 million. There are 300 vessels registered to fish and there will be 396 in 48 hours." Stacy Vega reported for Egegik: "The harvest on July 7 was 458,000 fish for a season total of 6.4 million." Ugashik reached 3.7 million for the season.

Fishing windows in effect Thursday: Naknek-Kvichak set gillnet fishing runs until 2 p.m.; Egegik drift gillnet opens 5:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.; Ugashik drift gillnet opens 4 a.m. to 4 p.m. Per ADF&G's revised Announcement No. 29, the Kvichak Section opens to drift gillnet gear from 7 a.m. to 2 p.m. Thursday. Permit holders in all three districts should stand by at noon Thursday, July 9, for the next possible announcement.

ADF&G's own preseason point estimate was 45.32 million fish, with an 80 percent prediction interval of 31.12 million to 59.52 million. The UW-FRI revision to 48.2 million falls within that range. The ADF&G forecast released in November 2025 described the 2026 run as 26 percent smaller than the most recent ten-year average of 61 million fish, though 21 percent above the long-term average. The total harvestable surplus for 2026 is projected at 33.53 million sockeye, with an inshore harvest of 32.26 million fish plus 1.27 million from the South Peninsula June fishery.