
Dan Stickel
87:56 - 89:18
"once full export operations begin in 2033, you'd start to see more revenue, just shy of $200 million a year total, but you'd start to see more revenue from the oil and gas production in the upstream, and then once you get out into the later years of the project and you start to see the significant potential revenues from the midstream developer that the corporate income tax impact could be over $600 million per year from this provision."
“once full export operations begin in 2033, you'd start to see more revenue, just shy of $200 million a year total, but you'd start to see more revenue from the oil and gas production in the upstream, and then once you get out into the later years of the project and you start to see the significant potential revenues from the midstream developer that the corporate income tax impact could be over $600 million per year from this provision.”
And so this shows the incremental expected corporate income tax just for the existing oil and gas production in the state revenue forecast. The orange bar on top of that represents incremental impact of of increased oil and gas upstream that's associated with the AK LNG project. And then the gray bar represents incremental corporate revenue associated with the midstream developer. And so you see during the first several years of the analysis, the The impact would essentially be that $50 million for the current oil and gas production, and then once full export operations begin in 2033, you'd start to see more revenue, just shy of $200 million a year total, but you'd start to see more revenue from the oil and gas production in the upstream, and then once you get out into the later years of the project and you start to see the significant potential revenues from the midstream developer that the corporate income tax impact could be over $600 million per year from this provision.
The Alaska Senate added a corporate income tax on oil and gas pass-through entities like Hilcorp to the AK LNG gas-pipeline bill (HB 381), effective 2028 regardless of the project.

State economist Dan Stickel told a legislative conference committee Friday that the Senate version of HB 381 reduces the Alaska LNG export break-even price from $9.05 to $8.62 per thousand cubic feet — still above current futures market prices near $8 — prompting Rep. Justin Ruffridge to say the project simply "doesn't work."
