
Speaker B
63:46 - 64:48
"on the top right is our baseline scenario, which is going to be the 270 million barrels additional production from Point Thompson and the zero oil impact at Prudhoe Bay. And then on the bottom left is kind of the worst case scenario with zero incremental Point Thompson production and a 500 million barrel loss at Prudhoe Bay."
“on the top right is our baseline scenario, which is going to be the 270 million barrels additional production from Point Thompson and the zero oil impact at Prudhoe Bay. And then on the bottom left is kind of the worst case scenario with zero incremental Point Thompson production and a 500 million barrel loss at Prudhoe Bay.”
And so, what we've done here is on the— on the top, on the horizontal axis is we've laid out our 5 scenarios for Point Thompson incremental oil production ranging from the 0 to the 270 as the 2 kind of sidebars. And then we've laid out on the vertical axis our 5 scenarios for Prudhoe Bay incremental oil production ranging from the zero down to the 500 million loss. And so, on the top right is our baseline scenario, which is going to be the 270 million barrels additional production from Point Thompson and the zero oil impact at Prudhoe Bay. And then on the bottom left is kind of the worst case scenario with zero incremental Point Thompson production and a 500 million barrel loss at Prudhoe Bay. And so, looking at these scenarios, there's a total of 25 different production scenarios that we can look at.
Department of Revenue modeling shows that if the Alaska LNG project costs $60 billion instead of the baseline $46.2 billion, the price needed to break even in global markets would jump by $1.60 per thousand cubic feet, significantly affecting project viability and the state's fiscal analysis of competing tax proposals.

Alaska Department of Revenue modeling shows the Alaska LNG project could cost the state $16.2 billion through 2062 under worst-case production scenarios combining Prudhoe Bay oil losses with Point Thompson underperformance at $100 per barrel oil prices.
