Water expected 1 to 1.5 feet above high tide at Kivalina, Shishmaref

Coastal water along the Chukchi Sea is expected to rise 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal high tide line late Sunday. Levels are forecast to peak overnight and drop off quickly Monday morning.

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks named Kivalina and Red Dog Dock, the Baldwin Peninsula, the Northern Seward Peninsula and Shishmaref in a special weather statement issued Saturday afternoon.

Gusty northwesterly winds are expected across Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea coast on Sunday, behind a cold front moving southeast off the Chukchi Sea. Gusts are forecast between 25 and 35 mph.

The forecast rise is far smaller than the surge documented in 2022. It lands on coastlines where erosion and flooding are already persistent problems.

Why a Modest Surge Registers Here

Shishmaref sits on Sarichef Island and has been inhabited for roughly 400 years. A NOAA-affiliated Arctic Change profile describes the village as facing evacuation because of reduced sea ice and thawing coastal permafrost. Villagers have voted to relocate inland, with the move estimated at $250 million. A 2017 paper in the journal Arctic Science found the open-water season near Kivalina has lengthened by about 5.6 days per decade over 37 years. Its authors wrote that the findings "support Kivalina villagers' assertions that climate change increases storm exposure and associated damages from flooding and erosion." In a 2016 Yale Environment 360 interview, Alaska Institute for Justice executive director Robin Bronen said of relocation, "there is no identified federal or state government agency that is tasked with this issue, which is one of the huge problems."

During the remnants of Typhoon Merbok in September 2022, Shishmaref recorded a surge of 1.68 meters above normal tide level. Kotzebue and Kivalina lost power.

The statement expires at 4 p.m. Sunday. The National Weather Service expects water levels to diminish rapidly Monday morning.