Kodiak Borough's draft Plan 2045 projects population falling to 11,240 by 2045

The Kodiak Island Borough could lose roughly 1,200 residents over the next 20 years, according to projections in the draft introduction to Plan 2045, the borough's comprehensive plan. The Planning and Zoning Commission is scheduled to review the chapter at a work session Wednesday, Aug. 12. No formal action will be taken. Commission and Assembly review and approval remain ahead before the plan is adopted.

The chapter puts the borough's 2025 population at 12,430 and projects it will fall to 11,240 by 2045, a decline of about 9.5%. That continues a slide from 13,913 residents in 2000. The City of Kodiak is projected to fall from 5,238 to 4,300 residents, and smaller communities like Larsen Bay and Karluk are also projected to shrink. The draft notes that longer-term models anticipate the population stabilizing at a smaller, older size once the generational shift tied to the baby boomer cohort works through.

The draft attributes the decline to outmigration of young adults, an aging population, and changes in the fishing and seafood processing industries and military staffing. The population has fallen in every census since 2000.

Kodiak's trajectory tracks a broader Alaska pattern of rural population loss, aging communities, and uneven growth between regional hubs and outlying villages. State labor projections show the borough falling from 13,287 residents in 2020 to 11,549 by 2045. An earlier borough housing needs assessment used the same state forecasts to anticipate a drop of about 1,100 residents between 2025 and 2045.

Residents have raised similar concerns to borough officials. Business owner Dan Rohr told the Assembly during public comment at its May 21 meeting that state projections showing an island-wide population of 9,871 by 2050 were "scary numbers to me." He added, "That's 20, pushing 25% less people than live here today. As a business owner and a building owner in the community, that worries me."

The chapter also sets out five guiding principles to steer the plan's goals: bold, equitable, authentic, resilient and sustainable.

Community Development Director Chris French told the commission on July 8 the comprehensive plan "is used for land use decisions, but it also can be used for infrastructure planning."

Public comment on the draft plan is expected this fall.