Forecasters now expect 3 to 5 inches of rain in Susitna basins next week

Rain Total Upgraded From "Possible" to "Expected"

Forecasters now expect 3 to 5 inches of rain across the upper Yentna, Chulitna and Susitna basins from Monday through Wednesday. The National Weather Service office in Anchorage said so Saturday in an updated flood watch for the Mat-Su and Susitna valleys.

The change in wording applies only to the rainfall. Friday's version of the same watch called the 48-hour totals possible and cited uncertainty in the amounts. Saturday's update dropped that hedge and called the rainfall expected. The watch is unchanged on the other point. Flooding caused by excessive rainfall remains possible, not expected.

The watch runs from Tuesday morning through Friday morning and remains in effect until noon Aug. 7. It covers Palmer, Wasilla, Big Lake, Skwentna, Willow, Talkeetna, Trapper Creek and Petersville.

Rivers Expected to Crest Wednesday

Rivers are expected to crest Wednesday or Wednesday night, at lower levels than the July 21-25 flood event, forecasters said. The watch singles out erosion-prone areas around Talkeetna, along with low-lying and poor-drainage ground elsewhere in the valley.

Excessive runoff may flood rivers, creeks and streams, the office said. Residents in flood-prone areas should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. They should also monitor later forecasts and stay alert for possible flood warnings.

That guidance lands hardest on people living along the valley's river corridors. During the July event, the weather service told residents and cabin owners along the Yentna River near Lake Creek that minor flooding was expected to continue. Forecasters warned then that water could enter a few low-lying cabins near Lake Creek and that gravel bars and low-lying camping spots may flood.