ASD projects $40M FY28 deficit — two months after voters rejected school bond and tax levy

Anchorage School District anticipates a $40 million structural deficit for fiscal year 2028 on top of around $90 million in earlier reductions, Superintendent Jarrett Bryant told a joint meeting Friday — just months after Anchorage voters narrowly rejected two ballot measures designed to support school funding.

"Every dollar that's not received will be a painful reduction that will need to be imposed upon the community," Bryant said.

ASD's revenue assumptions come with conditions. About $5.5 million in state energy relief and a potential additional $32 million from the Legislature both hinge on factors outside ASD's control — including state oil revenue exceeding $6.3 billion as of June 30, 2026, a determination the Department of Revenue won't make until August 31. The municipality's $12 million optional local contribution is also uncertain. "I can't make commitments at this time. I am not empowered to do that until we take a position," Assembly Chair Anna Brawley told the board.

That $12 million figure echoes a number Anchorage voters just turned down. In April's municipal election, voters narrowly rejected Proposition 9, a one-time $12 million tax levy intended to support teaching positions and class sizes, along with Proposition 1, a $79 million school bond for capital repairs. Both measures failed by margins of about one percentage point amid broader voter concern about local taxes and the district's recent budget decisions.

The budget picture also sits against a longer-running enrollment decline. ASD has lost roughly 5,000 students in recent years, including a drop of about 1,279 students in the most recent count — a structural change that complicates per-pupil funding math without proportionally reducing fixed building, transportation, and administrative costs.

Bryant pointed to academic progress despite ongoing cuts. "We got to see an increase in math proficiency. We've seen three years in a row progress on our benchmarks for our literacy screeners," he said. CFO Carrie Irons said the district has already made deep programming and staffing cuts while delaying school closure decisions.

State legislators raised the Base Student Allocation by $700 earlier this year — a step ASD says didn't fully restore losses from rising health care costs and inflation, but one some Anchorage residents and lawmakers view as significant given declining enrollment.