
Speaker B
82:24 - 83:06
"we're getting the property tax revenue and the royalties from gas are largely being offset by reduced royalties from oil, given the lower oil production. But the most significant impacts here in these $100 barrel oil with the worst-case oil production scenarios is due to reductions to production tax revenue."
“we're getting the property tax revenue and the royalties from gas are largely being offset by reduced royalties from oil, given the lower oil production. But the most significant impacts here in these $100 barrel oil with the worst-case oil production scenarios is due to reductions to production tax revenue.”
Slide 53 is our $100 oil price case with our worst-case production scenario under current law. That would be $9.3 billion of cumulative reduction to state revenue. And you can see what's going on here is we're getting the property tax revenue and the royalties from gas are largely being offset by reduced royalties from oil, given the lower oil production. But the most significant impacts here in these $100 barrel oil with the worst-case oil production scenarios is due to reductions to production tax revenue.
Department of Revenue modeling shows that if the Alaska LNG project costs $60 billion instead of the baseline $46.2 billion, the price needed to break even in global markets would jump by $1.60 per thousand cubic feet, significantly affecting project viability and the state's fiscal analysis of competing tax proposals.

Alaska Department of Revenue modeling shows the Alaska LNG project could cost the state $16.2 billion through 2062 under worst-case production scenarios combining Prudhoe Bay oil losses with Point Thompson underperformance at $100 per barrel oil prices.
