
Speaker B
67:35 - 68:31
"The $60 oil price represents a price that's a little bit lower than what we're forecasting and is a situation where most of the upstream producers will be in a minimum tax floor situation in the forecast. The $100 per barrel scenario represents something closer to current prices and would be a situation where most of the producers are in a net tax situation for the production tax. And so the impact of that net versus gross tax is significant when it comes to running these price scenarios."
“The $60 oil price represents a price that's a little bit lower than what we're forecasting and is a situation where most of the upstream producers will be in a minimum tax floor situation in the forecast. The $100 per barrel scenario represents something closer to current prices and would be a situation where most of the producers are in a net tax situation for the production tax. And so the impact of that net versus gross tax is significant when it comes to running these price scenarios.”
We picked a $60 price and a $100 price. The $60 oil price represents a price that's a little bit lower than what we're forecasting and is a situation where most of the upstream producers will be in a minimum tax floor situation in the forecast. The $100 per barrel scenario represents something closer to current prices and would be a situation where most of the producers are in a net tax situation for the production tax. And so the impact of that net versus gross tax is significant when it comes to running these price scenarios. But anyway, starting with slide 33, it's the same heat map chart looking at the upstream oil and gas revenue at $60 per barrel oil price.
Department of Revenue modeling shows that if the Alaska LNG project costs $60 billion instead of the baseline $46.2 billion, the price needed to break even in global markets would jump by $1.60 per thousand cubic feet, significantly affecting project viability and the state's fiscal analysis of competing tax proposals.

Alaska Department of Revenue modeling shows the Alaska LNG project could cost the state $16.2 billion through 2062 under worst-case production scenarios combining Prudhoe Bay oil losses with Point Thompson underperformance at $100 per barrel oil prices.
