
Speaker B
60:08 - 61:37
"the baseline modeling assumes a total of 270 million barrels of additional production from the field at as the significant additional development to bring the gas online brings on additional oil as well."
“the baseline modeling assumes a total of 270 million barrels of additional production from the field at as the significant additional development to bring the gas online brings on additional oil as well.”
Slide 30 is a similar analysis for the Point Thompson Field, again, with the purple line representing our baseline for oil production from Point Thompson with— zero is without the AKLNG project, what we anticipate Point Thompson production would be. And then the red line is our baseline oil production from Point Thompson with the AKLNG pipeline. So the baseline modeling assumes a total of 270 million barrels of additional production from the field at as the significant additional development to bring the gas online brings on additional oil as well. Now that scenario and those production assumptions were developed collaboratively with Department of Natural Resources in 2018 and 2019 based on the best information that was available at the time. Since then, we have had new information as the field has continued producing, and there has been testimony from, from Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, which was before this committee last week, and they are now saying the performance of that field has not been as strong as was hoped, and there's been some technical issues with the performance, and now they are looking at potential for a technical recovery from Point Thompson of around 100 million barrels of oil oil.
Department of Revenue modeling shows that if the Alaska LNG project costs $60 billion instead of the baseline $46.2 billion, the price needed to break even in global markets would jump by $1.60 per thousand cubic feet, significantly affecting project viability and the state's fiscal analysis of competing tax proposals.

Alaska Department of Revenue modeling shows the Alaska LNG project could cost the state $16.2 billion through 2062 under worst-case production scenarios combining Prudhoe Bay oil losses with Point Thompson underperformance at $100 per barrel oil prices.
