1:04
Speaker B
69:39 - 70:43
"at a higher oil price, the impact of lost barrels, if you had a scenario where Prudhoe Bay production was declining, the impact of those lost barrels is significant to state revenue, both in the reduction of value and the fact that at higher oil prices, when companies are paying under the net profits tax, we're getting a larger share of a larger pie."
“at a higher oil price, the impact of lost barrels, if you had a scenario where Prudhoe Bay production was declining, the impact of those lost barrels is significant to state revenue, both in the reduction of value and the fact that at higher oil prices, when companies are paying under the net profits tax, we're getting a larger share of a larger pie.”
- Speaker
- Speaker B
- Timestamp
- 69:39 – 70:43
- Community
- Alaska News
- Location
- Alaska
- Captured at
- June 8, 2026
From the transcript
Slide 35 is a similar analysis but with $100 per barrel oil. And what we see here is at a higher oil price, the impact of lost barrels, if you had a scenario where Prudhoe Bay production was declining, the impact of those lost barrels is significant to state revenue, both in the reduction of value and the fact that at higher oil prices, when companies are paying under the net profits tax, we're getting a larger share of a larger pie. And so the The impact of, of a lower production scenario could be significant. And so at $100 per barrel, we expect in our baseline production scenario an additional $28 billion positive to the state of incremental upstream revenue. But then in the worst-case production scenario, it would actually be a $17 billion incremental a fundamental negative to state revenue.
Related Coverage
Department of Revenue presents Senate Finance with Alaska LNG breakeven modeling across cost and tax scenarios
Department of Revenue modeling shows that if the Alaska LNG project costs $60 billion instead of the baseline $46.2 billion, the price needed to break even in global markets would jump by $1.60 per thousand cubic feet, significantly affecting project viability and the state's fiscal analysis of competing tax proposals.
by Walter AlaskaNews1h ago2 min readAIAlaska
