Supreme Court ruling on party spending hits Alaska's toss-up Senate race

The Supreme Court last week erased a 50-year-old federal limit on how much political parties can spend in direct coordination with candidates, and the ruling lands on one of the most competitive Senate races in the country: Alaska's contest between Rep. Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan.

The 6-3 decision, written by Justice Kavanaugh, struck down the Federal Election Campaign Act's coordinated-expenditure limits as a First Amendment violation, overruling the 2001 Colorado II precedent. The majority held that existing contribution caps, earmarking rules, and disclosure requirements are sufficient to prevent corruption. The dissent, joined by Justices Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson, warned that parties can now serve as an "alternative checking account for a campaign," letting large donors route unlimited sums to candidates they could not give directly.

The ruling builds on Citizens United's 2010 opening of unlimited independent spending, continuing the broader dismantling of post-Watergate campaign finance rules. Alaska's state-level contribution limits, upheld by the Ninth Circuit in 2021, remain in place and apply to state races. The Supreme Court's ruling governs federal coordinated party spending.

Peltola's campaign says Republican groups had already pledged $20 million in outside spending against her before the ruling. The decision removes the remaining coordination firewall on top of that figure. "DC Republican groups have near unlimited resources to pour into this race, and with this decision, we're expecting an onslaught of attack ads within the next few weeks," Peltola wrote in a campaign newsletter published Monday.

The race is rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Split Ticket, and VoteHub, making it among the most targeted Senate contests this cycle. A polling average published July 6 by Pollsmax showed Sullivan narrowly ahead, 46.7% to 45.8%, a shift from earlier surveys that had shown Peltola leading.