Kodiak borough lost 650 residents net over five years, mayor says

Kodiak Island Borough lost a net 650 residents over the past five years, Mayor Jared Griffin told the assembly Thursday, citing state demographic estimates released the day before the meeting.

The gross outflow was larger. "The pace of outmigration appears to be slowing, but over the past 5 years, our borough saw nearly 1,000 residents leave," Griffin said. "And it was a net loss of about 650 residents when you consider births and, you know, people moving in."

An aging, shifting population

The age breakdown showed additional changes. Residents in their 70s grew from roughly 700 to 900 while the youngest cohorts shrank. "Even more significant is, I think, is we continue to see fewer young children entering the population," Griffin said. "In April of 2020, we had 970 residents aged 5 to 9. That number last year was 800. 802, actually. We have a rapidly aging community."

"In April 2020, we had roughly 700 residents in their 70s. Now we have 900. That's a huge jump in just 5 years. The median age in Kodiak went from 35 to 36 in that period. That's a really significant shift," Griffin said. Male adults are leaving the island at twice the rate of women, he added. "Male adults are leaving the island at a faster pace than adult women are. 2 To 1, actually."

Griffin said the shifts could affect school enrollment, workforce availability, housing demand, and the services the borough provides. He cautioned that the trends are signals, not a fixed outcome. "They're trends, they're not destiny," he said.

Griffin said the new estimates will feed directly into a planning process the borough has been working toward. "That's going to help us as we enter into that long-awaited strategic planning process, which hopefully will get started pretty soon," he said.